Let’s be honest: The year has started and the “buzz” in the tech world hasn’t been that exciting. The National Retail Federation annual event and Consumer Electronics Show came and went with all the attendant hullaballoo, but the ground-shaking announcements we’ve come to count on just didn’t materialize.

Tech industry pundits will certainly disagree. They’ll point to gizmos and gadgets and shout loudly about the evolution of that tech panacea, “the cloud.” But the reality is that the evolution of technology is reaching a bit of a plateau this year.

With that in mind, here is my list of the top five trends to watch this year, what they mean for retailers and how to take advantage of them.

1. The Dearth (Not Death) of Innovation at Apple
It’s no secret that Tim Cook had some huge shoes to fill as the new ceo of Apple and, while the money continues pouring in, there are some cracks in the seemingly impenetrable Apple wall of innovation dominance. My theory is informed heavily by watching “Lincoln” this year and recognizing just what a strong (i.e., arrogant) leader is required to keep a “team of rivals” in check. This hasn’t happened at Apple since Jobs’ death, and it shows in the lackluster innovation of the iPhone 5. (Another row of icons? Sweet!)

What, exactly, would I actually want in a new iPad? A battery that lasts forever? A half-ounce lighter and thinner? The truth is that some of these products are about as good as they’re going to get, so subsequent innovation will be even harder. But don’t make the mistake of counting Apple out. It will likely find another niche to reinvent, just as it has with music, tablets, phones and publishing.

WHAT TO DO: Stop worrying about what comes next and focus on the devices that are in the hands of your shoppers today. People wandering around Walt Disney World holding up iPads – first to snap pictures and then to share them on Facebook in real time – aren’t the outliers: they’re the norm. Retailers need to integrate shopper-owned tablets and smartphones into their store experiences. It’s 2013, and if you aren’t doing this, you’re already late to the party, so stop procrastinating.

2. Fragmentation of the Tablet/Smartphone Market
Apple’s innovation slowdown has led to fragmentation of the tablet market, particularly at the low end. In some stores (OK, fair disclosure, it was a market in New Delhi), I’ve seen 7-in. Android tablets for under $20 – to say nothing of the more mainstream Samsungs, Kindles and Nooks that are all viable alternatives to an iPad at a far more attractive price. As the top of the category slows its feature-creep, the mid-tier and bottom explode with lower-cost alternatives.

WHAT TO DO: These devices are now cheap enough for you to deploy in-store without worrying about their durability. In a recent business meeting, a client was worrying about using these low-cost, easy-to-replace devices in lieu of “retail hardened” tablets, with one-third the utility at five times the cost. My rather frustrated response stuck with me: “You’re thinking about this wrong. No retailer thinks twice about keeping replacement light bulbs stocked in the store. The tech world has changed: The screens are the light bulbs, not the fixtures. You need to stop thinking of tech as irreplaceable and start thinking of it as disposable.”

3. The Touchless Kiosk
During the past couple years, touchless interfaces like Microsoft’s Kinect have gone from toys to real contenders for the primary way of interacting with screens. The promise is very appealing: no moving parts or touch screens to gum up, meaning they can be deployed on anything from in-store kiosks to outside windows.

WHAT TO DO: Honestly, I’m still not a fan of these for complex interfaces. I have a simple rule for technology: If I can’t make it work on the first try, easily and consistently, it won’t work for shoppers in stores. And the Kinect, in my opinion, is still quite limited when it comes to replacing a touch screen. Still, it’s powerful enough to begin exploring how simple interfaces can transform new types of interactive space. Give it a whirl. Just keep the interaction simple and your expectations modest.

4. The Digital Experience Platform
Gazing into the crystal ball, I foresee the introduction of a new type of software platform in 2013 – the digital experience platform. This will be a single, integrated way of managing shopper interactions across all touchpoints, from social media, to mobile, to digital signage in stores. Any vendor who wants to claim they have one, feel free to get in touch…

WHAT TO DO: Right now, this is more important as an idea than as a piece of software. Consider questions such as, “When I update a promotion, how do I ensure that it posts on Facebook, updates the email newsletter and appears on all the appropriate screens in my stores?” Remember that, in the future, this should be integrated. Even if the execution is fragmented today, start building internal processes and looking for vendors who support an integrated shopping experience in the future.

5. The Return of Retail Math
Dot-com boom, dot-com bust, store-of-the-future, economic crash, economic recovery. It’s hard to say where the industry is financially at any given moment in time. Here’s the truth: Well-run retailers thrive and badly run ones don’t, and a big part of what makes a retailer “well run” is a relentless focus on the numbers. This will hold true in retail tech in 2013.

WHAT TO DO: Understand the underlying business case for the tech investments you are considering. You won’t be able to quantify the exact impact of an investment before you make it, but it is straightforward to approximate the direction and order of magnitude of ROI. Work with your finance team to create an iterative approach to investment that will let high (but fuzzy) ROI projects get off the ground quickly. Test and measure relentlessly during the early phases. 

Next column? Five things to ignore in 2013. There’s a lot of chaff masquerading as wheat, and we’ll sort through some of the high-profile things that shouldn’t be on your radar screen.