Hides and Seek

Will we have to find another fashion trend? The current mania for leather is likely to suffer from the bovine diseases now spreading throughout Europe. In the most recent figures compiled, Europe provided nearly 17 percent of the world's supply of hides and skins; the U.S. contribution was 24 percent.

Under the threat of mad-cow and foot-and-mouth diseases (unrelated, by the way), less cattle is being slaughtered for beef, thus cutting into the hides-and-skins supply. And too many of the cows that are being killed are being burned, hides and all.

This comes at a time when U.S. sales of leather clothing have jumped 71 percent from 1999, to $4.2 billion. Wilsons Leather (Brooklyn Park, Minn.) produced 4 million pieces of leather apparel for its 570 stores last year. And it's not just apparel. Retailers may have to start worrying about fall-off in the production of bags, shoes, boots, belts, luggage and furniture.

Adequate amount of goods is only part of the problem. Limiting supply will almost certainly drive up prices of raw materials. And that could only mean that already-pricey leather goods will be pricier come fall.