Ghost of Christmas Past

America Research Group predicted a 3.8 percent retail sales increase this upcoming holiday season – generally disappointing, but especially so after last year's record high 6.8 percent splurge. The reasons cited by ARG, a Charleston, S.C., consumer behavior survey research company that annually forecasts Christmas shopping levels, were rising gas and heating oil prices and, at least currently, the unresolved Presidential election.

“More than half of the consumers we spoke to were so captivated by the strange outcome of the Presidential race that they were unable to talk about their Christmas shopping plans during this historical period,” said ARG founder and ceo C. Britt Beemer.

Among the findings were the conclusions that only the big discounters – Kmart, Wal-Mart, Target, etc. – will see healthy sales this Christmas; national department store chains (JCPenney, Sear's, etc.) and major regional department stores (such as Macy's) will see less spending; and Internet purchases, which soared a year ago, will remain flat this year.