NRF Lowers Sales Forecasts for 4Q, Christmas

The National Retail Federation has revised its retail sales forecasts for the fourth quarter and the winter holiday season “in light of the continuing psychological and economic impact of recent terrorist attacks in the U.S.”

The Washington-based trade association now says GAF (general merchandise, apparel, furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliance stores) sales growth for the fourth quarter will be 2.2 percent and holiday retail sales will increase 2.5 to 3 percent. Its previous forecast was for 4.0 percent growth.

“Since the terrorist attacks are so fresh and our country's response not yet known, it is premature to make definitive judgments about the economy,” said NRF chief economist Rosalind Wells. “We can only speculate based upon what we think the administration will do and how consumers will respond.

“Recession remains a possibility,” she added. “However, we feel that the strong underpinnings of the U.S. economy and the resilience of the U.S. consumer will force the stalling growth over the next few months to give way to a rebound beginning next year.”

“With a few notable exceptions, such as American flags, consumers are currently focusing on basics, buying out of necessity not desire,” said NRF president and ceo Tracy Mullin. “We expect consumer spending patterns to begin to return to normal levels as the holiday season approaches.”

The trade association giant also announced that it is reviewing the feasibility of whether to go ahead with its NRF Tech show, currently slated for October 14-17 in New Orleans. Former vice president Albert Gore was to be one of the featured speakers.