Surge Forecast in Import Cargo

America’s major container ports are expected to see a continued surge in imports through next spring, thanks to a possible strike again next month at East Coast and Gulf Coast container ports and President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to increase tariffs once in office. Those are the major conclusions of the latest Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can,” said NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “We hope that both can be avoided, but bringing in cargo early is a prudent step to mitigate the impact on our industry, consumers and the nation’s economy. We call on both parties at the ports to return to the table, get a deal done and avoid a strike. And we call on the incoming administration to use tariffs in a strategic manner rather than a broad-based approach impacting everyday consumer goods.”

Talks have broken down between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the U.S. Maritime Alliance, leaving the potential for a strike after the current contract extension reached after a three-day strike in October expires Jan. 15. NRF last week led a coalition of trade associations in sending a letter asking both parties to return to the bargaining table. Meanwhile, Trump has said he plans to increase a wide range of tariffs once he takes office on Jan. 20.

“Prospects of reaching a quick agreement on the key sticking point of automation are not looking good,” said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett, referring to the port labor contract. “The window to frontload goods on vessels arriving before a potential strike is quickly closing. Then there are issues as President-elect Trump promises to increase tariffs when he takes office. It is not clear whether this will actually take effect immediately or whether it will take time to implement the tariffs, but shippers are moving up as much cargo as they can before then.”

Click here for more from the NRF/Hackett report.