The global trade in counterfeit goods could reach $1.79 trillion by 2030, a 75% increase from that of 2023 and a growth 3.6 times higher than predicted for the overall global economy over the same period. That’s the conclusion of a just-released study by Corsearch, a provider of brand protection and trademark solutions.
That company’s calculations estimate that counterfeits accounted for 3.3% of global trade in 2023, and will grow to 5% by 2030 – meaning $1 in every $20 spent globally on products could be spent on counterfeit goods.
The total displaced economic activity from counterfeiting in 2022 – namely the cost to brands and manufacturers – totaled $1.1 trillion, resulting in a loss of $174 billion to worldwide sales tax revenue, impacting up to 5.4 million jobs.
In addition to the negative global economic impact of counterfeiting, fake products have a damaging effect on the reputation of brands, reducing customer trust and risking consumer safety.
“The rapid expansion of the counterfeiting industry could take up to 5% of the global goods economy by 2030 – posing a significant threat to brands,” said Simon Baggs, Corsearch’s President of Brand & Content Protection. “Urgent measures need to be taken…”
Corsearch bases its calculations on these data points:
- Total global trade in goods: $31 trillion (UN Conference on Trade & Development) (2023)
- Total growth in global trade in goods through 2030: 2.3% (Boston Consulting Group)
- Total trade in counterfeit goods, 2023: $1.023 trillion (OECD data) (2023)
- Employment loss: 4.2-5.4 million jobs (Frontier Economics)
- Cost of displaced legitimate economic activity due to counterfeiting: $1,106 billion (Frontier Economics & Corsearch calculation) (2022)
- Impact on sales tax revenue: $174 billion (Frontier Economics & Corsearch calculation)
- 3% annual increase counterfeit trade (Corsearch calculation, based on data from UN Conference on Trade & Development, OECD and EUIPO figures).
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