Austin, Seattle, Dallas, San Antonio and Houston topped Pitney Bowes Business Insight’s (PBBI) list of metropolitan areas most likely to see retail sales growth for the remainder of 2009 and into 2010.
In making its prediction, PBBI first identified the top five best performing markets based on comparative sales histories and “their ability to remain relatively stable for the past six quarters.” Then, it drilled down and analyzed trend data from various retail sectors including drug stores, high-end retailers, mid-tier retailers and value retailers. Its findings;
• Austin: Key factors include healthy growth in gross metropolitan product, personal disposable income and consumer expenditures coupled with a decline in personal bankruptcies;
• Seattle: Although housing and employment indicators will continue be soft through 2010, comparative sales were “respectable” for the last six quarters. Personal spending, disposable income and gross metro product are all on the rise. Its drug store sector ranks second only to Austin.
• Dallas: Employment looks likely to stagnate in 2009. Bankruptcies are down; personal income is up, as are housing construction and the gross metro product. Dallas compares favorably in all retail sectors and should be in the top for drug stores and value retail at least for the next six quarters.
• San Antonio: With economic stability and a rise in personal expenditure and gross metro product, the metro area should be a top market in drug stores and value retail.
• Houston: This Gulf market already shows strong comparative growth in the drug store and high-end retail sectors. Steady employment and an expanding gross metro product should keep it in a relatively good position in the value sector as well.