Strong Start

U.S. retail sales for the day after Thanksgiving, the traditional start of the holiday shopping season, rose by a strong 12.3 percent compared to the same day in 2001, according to the National Retail Sales Estimate (NRSE) from ShopperTrak RCT. By comparison, last year's U.S. retail sales for “Black Friday” grew just 2.7 percent compared to the day after Thanksgiving in 2000.

Not only were this year's sales a marked improvement from last year, the pace of sales for the day was more than twice as strong as the 2002 overall year-to-date trend. NRSE data shows consumer spending was strongest in the South, with the Midwest and West also posting impressive gains over 2001. Even the Northeast, which posted the day's weakest relative sales gain, was 10 percent stronger than the year-to-date trend for that region.

Developed by Chicago-based ShopperTrak RCT, the NRSE provides a nationwide benchmark of retail sales. It is derived from the U.S. Commerce Department's GAFO (general merchandise, apparel, furniture and other related store sales) statistic, as well as ShopperTrak RCT's proprietary industry intelligence on shopper movement and sales statistics.

“The strong start to the holiday season is a reassuring sign that the consumer is very much connected with this holiday season and can be enticed to spend by retailers,” says Michael Niemira, lead consultant for the NRSE. “Unfortunately, a strong start is not necessarily a guarantee of a strong overall season, so retailers will have to continue to work diligently for those sales this year.”

Indeed, the Thanksgiving weekend isn't necessarily a good barometer of how retailers will fare for the entire season. In fact, over the past few years, the weekend accounted for less than 10 percent of sales, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

But with six fewer shopping days in the season than last year, Thanksgiving weekend was even more critical to merchants, according to C. Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group, a consumer research company based in Charleston, S.C.

“There is no way you could have made up for this weekend, considering the shorter season,” Breemer says. “This is the kind of kickoff that retailers need if they are going to equal last year's numbers.”