A Holly, Jolly Christmas?

Despite higher gasoline prices and rising interest rates, consumers will once again find a little extra money to add to their holiday budgets this year, a new survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF) concludes.

The 2004 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, conducted by BIGresearch for Washington, D.C.-based NRF, found that the average consumer plans to spend $702.03 on the holidays, up 4.5 percent over last year. Total holiday spending this year is estimated to reach $219.9 billion.

The consumer survey, which drew responses from nearly 7900 consumers from October 6-14, reinforces the 4.5 percent increase in holiday sales that NRF forecast in mid-September, which was based on economic data. The holiday season, which generally accounts for nearly one quarter of the retail industry's sales in any given year, can make or break a retailer's annual performance.

“Retailers can be encouraged that consumers have been planning ahead for the holidays,” said Tracy Mullin, the NRF's president and ceo. “Shoppers won't let higher gas prices and rising interest rates steal Christmas this year.”

This year, average consumers will spend the bulk of their holiday budget on gifts for family ($406.52) and friends ($71.29). Consumers will also spend $22.12 on co-workers and $41.10 on other people, including babysitters, teachers and clergy. Other items consumers will purchase include decorations ($35.91), greeting cards and postage ($25.22), candy and food ($83.77) and flowers ($16.10).

In addition to purchasing gifts, many consumers have added their own names to the shopping list. More than half of consumers (51.2 percent) plan to take advantage of sales this holiday season to make non-gift purchases for themselves or their families, spending an additional $89.25 on those buys. Overwhelmingly, men and young adults plan to spend the most on themselves ($116.87 and $114.69, respectively).

Shoppers have also been thinking about what they would like to receive this year. As usual, books, CDs, DVDs, videos and video games held the highest ranking, with 53.1 percent of consumers hoping to receive something in that category. Clothing and clothing accessories also continue to rank high with shoppers, at 50.6 percent.

The largest jump this year came in gift cards, with more than half of consumers (50.2 percent) wanting to receive a gift card, up more than 10 percent in two years. Other items on consumers' wish lists include consumer electronics (32.6 percent), jewelry (22.6 percent) and home decor (21.3 percent).

Where will consumers shop this holiday shopping season? The survey placed discounters atop the list, at 77.1 percent, with department stores next at 53.1 percent. More than a third of consumers plan to shop at grocery stores (46.7 percent), specialty stores (39.3 percent) and online (38.3 percent).

With more than two months until Christmas, many consumers have chosen to get a head start. According to the survey, 18 percent of consumers started their holiday shopping before September, with an additional 6.9 percent starting in September and 17.7 beginning in October. More than a third of consumers (34.3 percent) will begin their holiday shopping in November with one in four (23.1 percent) waiting until December.