Deloitte: “Solid” But Slower Holidays

Holiday retail sales are likely to increase between 2.3% and 3.3% in 2024, according to Deloitte’s annual forecast. Overall, Deloitte’s retail and consumer products practice projects holiday sales will total $1.58 trillion to $1.59 trillion during the November to January timeframe. In 2023, holiday sales grew by 4.3% in the same period.

A key driver of overall retail sales growth in the upcoming season is expected to be e-commerce. Deloitte forecasts e-commerce will likely grow between 7% and 9%, year-over-year, during the 2024-2025 holiday season to between $289 billion and $294 billion this season.

“Although the pace of increase in holiday sales will be slower than last year, we expect that healthy growth in disposable personal income (DPI), combined with a steady labor market, will support a solid holiday sales season,” said Akrur Barua, Economist at Deloitte Insights. “Meanwhile, inflation is both a headwind and tailwind to holiday sales. While declining inflation aids consumers’ purchasing power, it also is expected to negatively impact the nominal rise in the dollar value of sales. In addition, rising credit card debt and the possibility that many consumers have exhausted their pandemic-era savings will likely weigh on sales growth this season compared to the previous one.”

This year’s more somewhat slower spending growth comes on the heels of a sharp rise in consumer outlays post-pandemic, which means 2024’s retail sales are expected to be “in line with trends over the past decade,” said Michael Jeschke, principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP and Retail & Consumer Products leader. “Our forecast indicates that e-commerce sales will remain strong as consumers continue to take advantage of online deals to maximize their spending. While this holiday season reflects a return to trend levels of growth, retailers who focus on building loyalty and trust with consumers could be well positioned for success.”

Deloitte is provider of audit, consulting, tax and advisory services. Click here for more from its holiday spending forecast.

Also: Click on the links below to read other stories on expected trends and shopping forecasts for this year’s holiday season, as reported by Shop!

• Holiday Shoppers May Suffer From “Marketing Fatigue”
• What’s Worrying Retailers Most Re: Holidays 2024?
• Holiday Shopping ’24: Consumers Pulled in Opposite Directions
• Early Holiday Spending Predictions Unveiled