Election Results Seen Hitting Recession Chances

Most Democrats (55%) are optimistic about their finances for the year following next month’s elections, while just a third of Republicans and independents feel the same. That’s one of the major findings in Nationwide’s 10th annual Advisor Authority study.

“Touted as one of the most consequential elections in decades, the 2024 presidential and congressional races could pose significant distractions for voters – particularly when it comes to their financial plans and portfolios,” the study notes. “A majority (55%) of investors believe the results of the 2024 U.S. federal (presidential and congressional) elections will have a bigger impact on their retirement plans and portfolio than market performance – up 10 percentage points from just a year ago.”

In anticipation of the election results, investors are bracing for adverse outcomes if their preferred candidates fail to win the White House and Congress. If the political party they least align with gains more power in the 2024 federal elections, one-third of investors (34%) believe the economy will plunge into a recession within 12 months. (However, Nationwide’s Office of Economics believes a recession in the near-term is unlikely unless there is a significant unforeseen event.)

Regarding specific economic concerns related to the party they least align with winning the election, half of investors (50%) believe the cost of living will rise, while one in three believe their taxes will increase within 12 months of the election (34%) or that economic policy will be enacted that will negatively impact their financial future (33%).

Click here for more from the survey.