Shopping Malls’ Last Hurrah

Last week saw the launch of what was billed as the largest shopping mall to open in Europe this year. Maybe so, but it is also possible that it will prove to be the only development of any size to the see the light of day during 2013. The plain fact is that in this part of the world there are just too many shops and adding to the sum total of what’s out there may not be the most obvious route to profit for retailers or developers.

The mall in question is in Leeds, a large (by U.K. standards anyway) city in the north of England. Dubbed “Trinity Leeds,” this covered mall adds 1 million square feet to the city’s retail provision. Retailers from Topshop to Urban Outfitters have put their best feet forward to create something special. And on March 21, opening day, the place was flooded with shoppers, students (there are a lot of them in Leeds) and the just plain curious, all intent on taking a look at the latest thing.

The opening of Trinity Leeds has shifted the commercial center of gravity approximately 200 yards south of where it used to be, but it has not increased the magnitude of the cake on which retailers feed. The net outcome will probably be that many shops outside the mall will close.

This may be the reason why the mall and store development pipeline is currently looking conspicuously empty across Europe. The combination of too many shops, stagnating consumer spending and moribund national economies means that the shock of the new is likely to be just that  – a shock. There will be so little that is new if “new” is taken to mean incremental retail space.

For the foreseeable future, asset management and store refurbishment look set to be the only games in town.